Immigration and crime weren’t the biggest issues in the 2024 presidential election (it was the economy, stupid), but they were in the top five, according to a Pew survey. Unsurprisingly, Trump voters rated both issues higher than Harris voters, and combining the two (with a healthy dose of demagoguery) proved to be enough to sweep Trump into the White House for a second term. Now a new large-scale study published in the Journal of Urban Affairs shows no link between unauthorized immigration and crime—with a little bit of a twist.
Combing through crime statistics spanning a decade from 11,500 neighborhoods, a team led by researchers at the University of California, Irvine found no evidence that an increase in unauthorized immigration drove up crime. In fact, the neighborhoods that saw the largest growth in the population of undocumented immigrants actually saw greater reductions in property crime and aggravated assaults.
“Consistent with the research base more generally, unauthorized immigration doesn’t drive crime rates in U.S. neighborhoods,” study author Charis E. Kubrin of UC Irvine said in a statement. “Honestly, I wasn’t too surprised.”
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While previous research has reached similar conclusions, this is the first large-scale study drilling down to the neighborhood level. “Nearly 100 years ago, the Wickersham Commission published a report showing that involvement in crime is lower among immigrants than the native born,” Kubrin continued, “a finding that made its way onto the front page of The New York Times in an article titled, ‘Wickersham Board Frees Foreign-Born of Big Crime Blame.’ That title says it all.”
There was one interesting wrinkle, however: Robberies tended to increase in areas with more undocumented immigrants. That said, it’s not what you think. According to the researchers, immigrants aren’t more likely to perpetrate the crimes, they’re more likely to be victims of them. “An increase in robberies, despite decreases in all other crime categories, would be consistent with the idea that undocumented immigrants are disproportionately likely to be targets of robbery given greater involvement in the cash economy,” study co-author John Hipp of UC Irvine explained.
Per his last point, undocumented immigrants are more likely to get paid in cash, less likely to have bank accounts, and are often reluctant to report crimes. Taken together, these characteristics make them tempting targets for robbers. This dynamic, something researchers refer to as the “Walking ATM” phenomenon, has been uncovered in previous studies.
The team says their findings call into question the Trump administration’s justification for ramped-up immigration enforcement, which falsely assumes immigrants commit crimes at higher rates. “It’s well beyond time to rethink immigration enforcement in this country,” Kubrin said. “These policies are largely ineffective at enhancing public safety and may actually do more harm than good.” 
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